History has a strange way of coming full circle. In 1971, India stood as the midwife to the birth of Bangladesh, with Sheikh Mujibur Rahman famously acknowledging India’s “mother-like” role in their liberation. Fast forward 50 years, and the atmosphere in Dhaka has shifted from gratitude to grievance.
Today, the borders are tense, visas are suspended, and the rhetoric coming from Dhaka’s streets—and its new leadership—threatens to destabilize the “Seven Sisters” of Northeast India.
1. The Visa Freeze and the High Commission Standoff
For the first time in decades, the Indian High Commission in Bangladesh has suspended new visa issues. This isn’t a mere administrative hiccup; it is a security response. Visuals from Dhaka show massive crowds of youth shouting anti-India slogans, surrounding the High Commission, and demanding the “expulsion” of Indian influence. When a sovereign nation cannot guarantee the safety of diplomats, the bridges of movement are naturally burned.
2. The “Chicken’s Neck” Threat: Empty Rhetoric or Real Danger?
One of the most alarming developments is the provocative statement by student leader Hasnat Abdullah and certain elements within the current interim setup. They have openly called for cutting off the Siliguri Corridor—the 22km wide “Chicken’s Neck” that connects mainland India to its North Eastern states.
While such threats sound bold on a megaphone, they ignore military reality. The power asymmetry between the Indian Army and the Bangladesh military is vast. However, the danger lies not in a direct war, but in insurgency. By reviving the ghosts of the 1990s—groups like the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT)—extremist elements hope to bleed India from within.
3. The “Greater Bangladesh” Map: A Geopolitical Fantasy
Recently, a map has been circulating among Bangladeshi activists—and reportedly seen in the hands of those close to the interim government—claiming territories of West Bengal, Odisha, and the entire Northeast as “Greater Bangladesh.”
While this map lacks any historical or legal basis, its circulation serves a purpose: Diversion. * Economic Struggles: Bangladesh’s GDP growth has slumped to 3.35%, and inflation is soaring at 8.29%.
- The Diversion Tactic: When a government cannot provide bread, it provides an enemy. By pointing fingers at India, the interim administration under Muhammad Yunus attempts to consolidate nationalistic fervor to mask economic failure.
4. The Shadow of Superpowers
The shift in Bangladesh isn’t happening in a vacuum. Under Muhammad Yunus, the country is perceived to be leaning toward a Pro-China and Pro-Pakistan stance.
- China’s Interest: A “Tri-structural Bond” between China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh would effectively encircle India.
- The US Factor: The transition is also viewed through the lens of US interests in the region. Some analysts suggest that the destabilization of Sheikh Hasina’s pro-India government suits certain Western geopolitical agendas, even if it brings temporary chaos.
5. The Sheikh Hasina Factor and the Extradition Trap
The interim government’s demand for the extradition of Sheikh Hasina has become a flashpoint. While there is an extradition treaty between the two nations, it excludes “political” cases. India’s refusal to hand her over to a “barbaric” trial—where sentences are passed amidst cheering crowds rather than legal evidence—is being framed by Dhaka as an interference in their internal affairs.
A Note on Internal Strength: Beyond Borders
The transcript also makes a poignant pivot to India’s internal culture, specifically regarding Lionel Messi’s recent visit. While we celebrate global icons and build 70-foot statues, Indian sports legends like Abhinav Bindra have raised a vital question: Are we building ecosystems or just spectacles?
India ranks 143rd in FIFA rankings. Our passion for the “spectacle” of Messi must translate into better playgrounds, state-sponsored coaching, and an education system that values sports. To face external threats like those at the border, a nation needs more than just a strong army; it needs a robust, healthy, and disciplined youth population.
The Bottom Line
Bangladesh must remember its history before trying to rewrite its geography. India remains a “Big Brother” that prefers peace, but as the military reality dictates, a “Hyena” strategy of backstabbing will only lead to the self-destruction of the aggressor.
For India, the message is clear: Stay alert on the borders, but stay focused on building internal excellence.
The High Stakes of Hostility: Economic Chokepoints and Military Reality
As of late 2025, the relationship between New Delhi and Dhaka has moved beyond mere diplomatic friction into a phase of significant economic and strategic consequence. To understand why this matters to the average citizen in both countries, we must look at the hard numbers and the raw power dynamics.
1. The Economic Fallout: A Self-Inflicted Wound for Dhaka?
Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in South Asia, but the current “anti-India” sentiment is proving to be an expensive political tool.
The Trade Imbalance and Port Restrictions
India recently imposed immediate port restrictions on several categories of goods from Bangladesh.
- The Cost: Reports suggest these restrictions will cost the Bangladesh economy over $770 million.
- Impact on Textiles: Ready-made garments (RMG), the backbone of Bangladesh’s economy, are now barred from land ports in India’s Northeast and restricted to select sea ports like Kolkata and Nhava Sheva. This adds massive logistical costs to a sector already struggling with high energy prices and labor unrest.
- The “Captive Market” Argument: India has accused the interim government of “cherry-picking” trade issues—expecting free access to Indian markets while blocking transit for Indian goods to the Northeast.
The “Mini-Bangladesh” Crisis in Kolkata
It isn’t just Dhaka feeling the heat. Kolkata’s Marquis Street area, often called “Mini Bangladesh,” has seen business collapse.
- Visa Suspension: With Indian Visa Application Centres (IVACs) in Dhaka, Chittagong, and Rajshahi closing due to security threats, medical and leisure tourism has evaporated.
- Medical Diplomacy: Historically, 80% of visas were for medical purposes. By cutting these off, the interim government is inadvertently denying its own citizens life-saving care in Indian hospitals.
2. Military Comparison: Power vs. Posture (2025)
While extremist leaders in Dhaka boast about “cutting the Chicken’s Neck,” the actual military balance of power reveals a massive disparity.
The Conventional Balance
| Feature | India (Global Rank #4) | Bangladesh (Global Rank #35-49) |
| Defense Budget | ~$75 Billion | ~$4.5 – $5.1 Billion |
| Active Personnel | ~1.45 Million | ~163,000 – 230,000 |
| Tank Strength | 4,200+ (T-90, Arjun) | ~320 – 350 (Type 59, MBT-2000) |
| Fighter Aircraft | 513+ (Rafale, Su-30MKI) | ~42 – 50 (MiG-29, F-7) |
| Submarines | 18 (Including Nuclear) | 2 (Type 035G – Older Class) |
The Strategic Reality
- Defensive vs. Offensive: Bangladesh’s military doctrine, “Forces Goal 2030,” is focused on territorial defense and counter-insurgency. It lacks the long-range artillery, strategic missiles, and air superiority required to sustain a conflict with a peer adversary like India.
- The Mizoram Factor: In response to the rhetoric, the Indian Army is establishing a fourth base in Mizoram and reinforcing the Siliguri Corridor with blast-proof bunkers and underground armouries.
- The “Hyena” Strategy: As the transcript noted, the danger isn’t a face-to-face war, but rather Bangladesh becoming a launchpad for Insurgent Groups (NLFT, ATTF). India’s current strategy is to build a “layered defense” that treats the border not just as a line, but as a fortified security zone.
3. The “Greater Bangladesh” Trap
The rise of the “Greater Bangladesh” narrative—claiming Indian states like West Bengal and Assam—is being viewed by New Delhi as a geopolitical hallucination. However, it serves a domestic purpose: it keeps the youth distracted from a 3.35% GDP growth rate and 8.29% inflation.
By allowing Pakistan to re-embed its military officers into Dhaka’s defense structure, the interim government is risking a “generational shift” that could leave Bangladesh isolated from its most natural economic partner: India.
Final Verdict
The 1971 bond was built on shared sacrifice. The 2025 tension is built on political convenience. If Bangladesh continues to poke the “Indian Lion” to satisfy internal radical elements, it risks losing the very economic stability that took five decades to build.
